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Winning Muslim Votes:

A Policy Priority Analysis in Swing States

This report sheds light on Muslim voter preferences and opinions compared to the general public in three key swing states (Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Michigan) in advance of the 2024 general election. It provides detailed insight into what’s driving these voters’ decisions during a time when the war on Gaza is galvanizing this electorate. Taken together, these findings illustrate where this small but incredibly important group may fall during an election that may come down to the margins.

Partner Organizations

This research was conducted by the Institute for Social Policy and Understanding (ISPU) in partnership with Change Research, with generous support and partnership from the Emgage Foundation.

Winning Muslim Votes: Online Reports and PDFs

Download the Report PDF


Supplementary Documents

Appendix I: Methodology

Appendix II: Questionnaire

Appendix III: Data Tables

Read the Online Reports

  • September 17, 2024
Full Report: Winning Muslim Votes: A Policy Priority Analysis in Swing States

Introduction A record number of voters showed up to the polls for the 2020 general

Graphs for Winning Muslim Votes

War in Gaza as Top Concern

A table compares the top three presidential voting issues for the general public and Muslims, highlighting “War in Gaza” as a key concern for 37% of Muslim voters and 71% of Muslim swing voters.

Table comparing top issue concerns of the general public and Muslim voters, including swing voters, in the U.S. The war in Gaza is the top concern for Muslim swing voters (71%), less so for others. Other issues are also listed.

Bar chart comparing the top issue for judging candidates: 61% of Muslim voters versus 29% of the general public say the war in Gaza is the most important issue, based on a 2024 survey in Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania.

Bar chart showing the percentage of Muslims by race who consider Gaza a top issue: Arab (74%), Asian (63%), White (53%), and Black (38%). Title: “Gaza Is a Top Issue for All Muslims Regardless of Race.”.

Table comparing policy priorities of public and Muslim voters in Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. War in Gaza is the top concern for Muslims, while other issues rank higher for the general public in each state.

Support for Candidates by Issue

Bar chart showing 2024 presidential candidates’ support for the environment influences Muslim and general voters. Biden voters are most likely influenced positively; Trump voters less so. Swing voters show mixed influence for both candidates.

Bar chart comparing how Biden and Trump’s support for traditional gender/family values impacts 2024 voting likelihood among Muslim voters, swing voters, and general public, showing stronger positive impact for Trump among Muslims.

Bar chart comparing how Biden and Trump supporters, including swing voters, feel about a candidates support for combating Islamophobia in 2024; Muslim voters value it more than general voters.

Bar chart showing 2024 voter support for keeping the US out of foreign wars: Muslim voters favor Biden (72%), general public favors Trump (68%); swing voters lean toward Trump (62%). Small percentages say it makes no difference.

Bar chart showing how Biden, Trump, and swing voters’ support for reducing military aid to Israel affects votes in the 2024 election. Most Muslim voters favor reduction; public opinion is more divided. Color-coded by response.

Bar chart showing that Biden’s support for a Gaza ceasefire makes Muslim and swing voters more likely to vote for him (72% and 45%), while Trump’s support has less positive effect. Percentages for more/less likely, no difference, and unsure shown.

Political Affiliation, President Biden, and Political Engagement

Bar chart comparing Muslim voter and general public engagement with federal/local representatives and political campaigns nationally and in three states. Muslims show slightly higher federal engagement rates than the general public.

Bar chart comparing Muslim and general public support for Biden, Trump, 3rd party, write-in, not voting, and undecided in Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania swing states as of June–July 2024.

Bar chart showing a decline in Muslim support for Biden in 2024 vs. 2020 across race groups: Black (74% to 25%), White (65% to 30%), Asian (68% to 31%), Arab (59% to 5%). Data from ISPU, June 2024.

Bar chart showing the drop in Muslim support for Biden from 65% in 2020 to 46% in 2024. Trump support rises from 10% to 20%, with increases in third party, non-voters, and undecided as well. Data from MI, GA, PA.

A stacked bar chart comparing political party identification between the general public and Muslims in the U.S., showing Muslims are more likely to identify as independents or “other” than the general public.

Access to News and Media

A table compares how general public, Muslim, Trump, and swing voters get news. It shows percentages using TV, newspapers, Facebook, influencers, TikTok, and total social media, highlighting higher conventional media use among Muslim Biden voters.

A table compares how different age groups of general public and Muslims in the US rely on TV, newspapers, social media, and other sources for news. Social media use decreases and conventional media use increases with age.

Research Team

Dalia Mogahed
Report Author

Saher Selod, PhD
Director of Research, ISPU

Erum Ikramullah
Senior Research Project Manager, ISPU

Sarah Baker
Research Project Manager, ISPU

Communications Team

Katherine Coplen
Director of Communications, ISPU

Tahirah Blanding
Communications Campaigns Specialist, ISPU

Bushra Aljaber
Creative Communications Specialist, ISPU

Advisor

Amaney A. Jamal, PhD
Political Science, University of Michigan

Dean, Princeton School of Public and International Affairs

Edwards S. Sanford Professor of Politics and International Affairs